GoldbergBlog

I’ve Been Thinking – Election 2008, Part III

The Obama Effect

Polls are snapshots.  That’s what I have to keep telling myself so that I won’t start gloating that Obama has already won.  My reserve isn’t because I’m afraid I’ll be crushed if I acknowledge that Obama has won and then come Tuesday night, McCain gets his picture put in the dictionary next to the word “Upset”.  I know I’ll be crushed if Obama loses and no amount of cautious optimism is going to lessen that blow.

But over these past few weeks, as Obama’s poll numbers have climbed, we’ve heard mention of “The Bradley Effect”.  For those that haven’t decided to devote every spare second browsing political coverage, the Bradley Effect is the notion that white people will tell pollsters that they’re voting for a black candidate and then will secretly vote for the white candidate.  The historical reference is that African-American Tom Bradley was ahead in the polls for the 1982 California Gubernatorial race but lost the election.  There’s a concern that the Bradley Effect will happen on November 4th and we’ll see how racist our nation truly is.

If that does happen, I submit that from henceforth, “The Bradley Effect” be known as “The Obama Effect”, because there’s no way that so many polls, pundits, and journalists could get this prediction wrong without racist white people lying to pollsters.  But even if you don’t take heart in polls, take heart in Obama’s massive fund-raising, the voter-turnout during the primaries, and that he draws crowds of tens of thousands of people.

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