GoldbergBlog

While I already voiced my opinions about the nominees when they were first announced, I’m putting down a final word now that all the ballots are in and we’re less than 24 hours away from finding out who goes home with a statue and who goes home wishing Edward Norton hadn’t deprived them of their precious gift basket.

BEST PICTURE
Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine - WILL WIN
The Departed - SHOULD WIN
The Queen

This is the only tough category. Then again, last year should have been an easy prediction about Crash made a huge upset over Brokeback Mountain and when I say “upset”, I mean I cursed at my television in disgust for about the next week. I missed meals and everything.

Now while conventional wisdom is on Babel because it’s got the ensemble (the majority of the Academy is made up of actors) and it’s got a “message” (don’t let your Hispanic maid take your kids to Mexico for a wedding), I’m voting on Little Miss Sunshine because it too has a message (a good family comes together when it counts) and the SAG voters already showed it some love by giving it Best Ensemble (their equivalent of Best Picture).

While a win for LMS would only continue the backlash towards a film which is good but certainly isn’t the year’s “Best Picture” (but those rarely live in the same neighborhood anyway), it’s a far better film than the embarrassingly terrible Babel. While The Departed could win, I don’t think it will because…

BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears - The Queen
Paul Greengrass - United 93
Alejandro González Iñárritu - Babel
Martin Scorsese - The Departed - WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN

This is Scorsese’s year. To not give him the award would be a personal insult as it would set a new record for a director with the most nominations without a win. They’re going to give him an Oscar not only so they don’t have to give The Departed the Best Picture statue (which, if that happened, would make Brad Pitt an Oscar winner as he was one of the film’s producers). For a while, I thought they might give it to Clint, but they already gave him one two years ago for Million Dollar Baby and Scorsese has won every critical and guild award possible. There’s really just no clear alternative and you should expect to see him get a standing ovation when he finally gets that award recognition he so richly deserves.

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Peter O’Toole - Venus
Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland - WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN

This is where the categories get boring. The acting categories usually feature a close competition but not this year. These are pretty much even odds. While a few are betting on O’Toole for an upset, he got his Lifetime Achievement Award last year. Whitaker will be taking it this year.

BEST ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz - Volver
Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal - SHOULD WIN
Helen Mirren - The Queen - WILL WIN
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet - Little Children

Again, Mirren is a lock for this award. I personally think Dench gave a more fascinating performance, but the Academy seems to love actors who play real people, especially those of recent history (the only way Mirren could win this award even more is if Queen Elizabeth II died within the last year; but you can’t win ‘em all).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley Little Children - SHOULD WIN
Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls - WILL WIN
Mark Wahlberg - The Departed

This category is the only one with even the faintest hint of a question mark. Some say that Murphy jeopardized his chances with the obnoxious Norbit campaign. Having huge billboards plastered around L.A. with Eddie Murphy mounting himself as a fat woman with the tagline “Have you ever made a huge mistake?” probably isn’t the best thing when trying to win over Oscar voters. And Oscar voters have a clear alternative by giving the award to the Hollywood Veteran(TM) with Alan Arkin (who has never won an Oscar). Still, the Oscars are also about star power and Murphy’s had it for about twenty years. An award for him is honoring his high profile career and his decision to try a dramatic role. I think Haley should win because I think you should give awards to guys that make you feel compassion towards sexual predators.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza - Babel
Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls - WILL WIN
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel - SHOULD WIN

A lot of people were blown away by Hudson, especially during her rendition of “And I’m Telling You I’m Not Going”. I was not one of those people. It’s a good performance but then again, my entire reaction towards Dreamgirls was “good, not great”. Nevertheless, it’s almost a total certainty she’s going to win tonight (I say almost because I though Brokeback winning Best Picture was a total certainty). I think Rinko Kikuchi gave a mind-blowing performance in a film that doesn’t need her. It’s like she’s in a completely different movie; a movie that’s interesting and not a complete piece of crap.

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So those are your major categories. Check back for more bitching and moaning after the ceremony, which takes places at 8 PM Est on ABC.

Tags: movies //